World · UEFA Europa Conference League · Playoff round18:00

2 – 3

Thursday, 27 August 2026

Kybunpark · Referee O. Grinfeld · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC

FC ST. Gallen vs FC Nordsjaelland Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.48 for FC Nordsjaelland, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives FC Nordsjaelland the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

63.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model78/100

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-market-v1

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC ST. Gallen home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Nordsjaelland away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Nordsjaelland to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 36% / 25% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.48 for FC Nordsjaelland, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC ST. Gallen win36%

Draw25%

FC Nordsjaelland win39%

Double chance 1X

61%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–28.6%
2–18.2%
0–18.1%
1–07.8%

Odds vs model — value finder

Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.8%), compared with our model probability.

No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.

Market	Selection	Odds	Market %	Model %	Fair odds	Edge
Double chance	Home/Away	1.25	74.0%	75.3%	1.33	+1.3
Match result	Away	2.38	38.3%	39.0%	2.56	+0.7
Match result	Home	2.55	35.7%	36.3%	2.75	+0.6
Goals	Under 2.5	2.10	44.0%	44.6%	2.24	+0.6
Both teams to score	No	2.25	41.1%	41.4%	2.42	+0.3
Both teams to score	Yes	1.57	58.9%	58.6%	1.71	-0.3
Double chance	Draw/Away	1.44	64.3%	63.8%	1.57	-0.5
Goals	Over 2.5	1.65	56.0%	55.4%	1.81	-0.6
Double chance	Home/Draw	1.50	61.7%	61.1%	1.64	-0.6
Match result	Draw	3.50	26.0%	24.8%	4.03	-1.2

Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Recent form

FC ST. Gallen

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brühl · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Basel 1893 · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 0-3 (L)

FC Nordsjaelland

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Malmo FF · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Viborg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vatanspor · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Aarhus · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Midtjylland · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-08-27T18:00:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 2-3 FC Nordsjaelland (UEFA Europa Conference League)
2026-08-20T17:00:00.000Z · FC ST. Gallen 0-1 FC Nordsjaelland (UEFA Europa Conference League)

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 63.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.