Kybunpark · Analysis updated 16:44 UTC
FC ST. Gallen vs Servette FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.88 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Servette FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Servette FC win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.55 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC ST. Gallen home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Servette FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Servette FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 32% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.55 goals for FC ST. Gallen and 1.88 for Servette FC, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.1%
Recent form
FC ST. Gallen
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brühl · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Basel 1893 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lugano · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 0-3 (L)
Servette FC
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Annecy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Servette FC win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.