Millerntor-Stadion · Referee Eric-Dominic Weisbach, Germany · Analysis updated 10:44 UTC
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.77 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.23 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives FC St. Pauli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC St. Pauli win
50.1% probability
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC St. Pauli home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Kaiserslautern away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC St. Pauli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.77 goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.23 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.50 | 63.0% | 64.7% | 1.55 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.70 | 25.1% | 26.6% | 3.76 | +1.5 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.90 | 48.7% | 50.0% | 2.00 | +1.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.25 | 40.8% | 41.3% | 2.42 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 50.2% | 50.1% | 2.00 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.55 | 59.2% | 58.7% | 1.70 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.2% | 76.7% | 1.30 | -0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.1% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.7% | 23.4% | 4.27 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.55 | 37.0% | 35.3% | 2.83 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC St. Pauli
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Energie Cottbus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 0-2 (L)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
- 2026-10-24T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Bochum · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC St. Pauli win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.