· Analysis updated 04:57 UTC
FC St. Pauli vs HNK Gorica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.10 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 2.20 for HNK Gorica, a combined total of 4.30. That distribution gives HNK Gorica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.8% probability
Expected goals
2.10 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC St. Pauli home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HNK Gorica away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Gorica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 38% / 20% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.10 goals for FC St. Pauli and 2.20 for HNK Gorica, a combined 4.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–16.3%
- 2–35.3%
Recent form
FC St. Pauli
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Energie Cottbus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 0-2 (L)
HNK Gorica
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Osijek · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.