FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.25 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Karlsruher SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

70.5% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC St. Pauli home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Karlsruher SC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Karlsruher SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 30% / 29% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.25 for Karlsruher SC, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

FC St. Pauli win30%

Draw29%

Karlsruher SC win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals66%

Over 2.5 goals39%

Over 3.5 goals19%

Both teams to score45%

Correct score

0–113.2%
1–113.2%
0–010.5%
1–010.5%
0–28.2%

Recent form

FC St. Pauli

2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Energie Cottbus · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 0-2 (L)

Karlsruher SC

2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · A vs SV Wehen · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Energie Cottbus · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

2. Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	9	8	1	0	12	25
2	1. FC Nürnberg	9	5	3	1	9	18
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	9	5	3	1	5	18
4	VfL Wolfsburg	9	4	4	1	9	16
5	1. FC Magdeburg	9	5	1	3	8	16
6	1. FC Heidenheim	9	4	3	2	0	15
7	FC St. Pauli	9	2	6	1	2	12
8	Arminia Bielefeld	9	3	2	4	-1	11
9	Energie Cottbus	9	2	4	3	-1	10
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	Dynamo Dresden	8	2	2	4	-4	8
12	VfL Osnabrück	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	VfL Bochum	9	2	2	5	-4	8
14	Hannover 96	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Karlsruher SC	9	2	2	5	-9	8
16	SV Darmstadt 98	9	2	2	5	-10	8
17	Eintracht Braunschweig	8	2	1	5	-2	7
18	Holstein Kiel	8	0	5	3	-4	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.