Millerntor-Stadion · Referee Sören Storks, Germany · Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.27 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives FC St. Pauli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC St. Pauli home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfL Wolfsburg away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.50 (model 46.2% vs market 36.5%, edge +9.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.50 | 36.5% | 46.2% | 2.16 | +9.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.44 | 64.9% | 65.6% | 1.52 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 26.1% | 3.83 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.3% | 60.5% | 1.65 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.4% | 39.5% | 2.53 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.62 | 34.6% | 34.4% | 2.91 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.8% | 73.9% | 1.35 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.44 | 63.5% | 53.8% | 1.86 | -9.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC St. Pauli
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Energie Cottbus · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Wolfsburg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Arminia Bielefeld · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 0-2 (L)
VfL Wolfsburg
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Havelse · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-18T16:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Darmstadt 98 · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC St. Pauli · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T18:30:00.000Z · FC St. Pauli 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg (2. Bundesliga)
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · FC St. Pauli 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2026-01-14T17:30:00.000Z · FC St. Pauli 1-2 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2025-03-08T14:30:00.000Z · FC St. Pauli 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2024-10-26T13:30:00.000Z · FC St. Pauli 0-0 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2011-04-16T13:30:00.000Z · FC St. Pauli 2-2 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
- 2010-11-21T16:30:00.000Z · FC St. Pauli 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga)
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 25 |
| 2 | 1. FC Nürnberg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 18 |
| 3 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | VfL Wolfsburg | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | 1. FC Magdeburg | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 |
| 6 | 1. FC Heidenheim | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 7 | FC St. Pauli | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | VfL Osnabrück | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Energie Cottbus | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 13 | Holstein Kiel | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | VfL Bochum | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Hannover 96 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 17 | Karlsruher SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.