· Analysis updated 19:02 UTC
FC Tallinn vs Nõmme United II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.69 expected goals for FC Tallinn and 1.92 for Nõmme United II, a combined total of 3.61. That distribution gives Nõmme United II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.69 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Tallinn home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nõmme United II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nõmme United II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 34% / 22% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.69 goals for FC Tallinn and 1.92 for Nõmme United II, a combined 3.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.8%
- 1–28.4%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–35.4%
Recent form
FC Tallinn
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tartu Welco · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-10T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Flora II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Laagri · 0-10 (L)
- 2026-09-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Harju JK Laagri U21 · 5-0 (W)
Nõmme United II
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme Kalju II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Viimsi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Tallinna Kalev · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Elva · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Esiliiga A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | FCI Levadia II | 32 | 16 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | Elva | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | -1 | 49 |
| 5 | Flora II | 31 | 14 | 6 | 11 | 18 | 48 |
| 6 | Maardu | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | -12 | 43 |
| 7 | Tallinna Kalev | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 37 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | -14 | 36 |
| 9 | FC Tallinn | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | -35 | 35 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 33 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -42 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.