Stockhorn Arena · Analysis updated 13:16 UTC
FC Thun vs FC Lugano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for FC Thun and 3.03 for FC Lugano, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives FC Lugano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Lugano win
79.2% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 3.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Thun home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Lugano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Lugano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 8% / 13% / 79% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for FC Thun and 3.03 for FC Lugano, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
21%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–38.9%
- 0–28.8%
- 1–38.2%
- 1–28.1%
- 0–46.7%
Recent form
FC Thun
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Kriens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshoppers · 0-1 (L)
FC Lugano
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luzern · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC ST. Gallen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BSC Young Boys · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Lugano win, at 79.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.