Stockhorn Arena · Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
FC Thun vs Gent Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.21 for Gent, a combined total of 2.36. That distribution gives Gent the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Thun home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gent away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gent to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 34% / 28% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for FC Thun and 1.21 for Gent, a combined 2.36 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
FC Thun
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Kriens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshoppers · 0-1 (L)
Gent
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Zulte Waregem · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liege · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Genk · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-03T18:30:00.000Z · H vs OH Leuven · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brighton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 2 | FC Copenhagen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Mjallby AIF | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | St. Truiden | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | FC Lugano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Monaco | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Brann | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Gent | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Twente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Getafe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Kairat Almaty | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 22 | Riga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23 | FK Jablonec | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | FK Crvena Zvezda | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Ajax | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Borac Banja Luka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | CSKA Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Aarhus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 30 | FC Thun | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 31 | KuPS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Pafos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 33 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 34 | FC Iberia 1999 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 35 | SC Braga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 36 | Kauno Žalgiris | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.