FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.72 for HNK Hajduk Split, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives HNK Hajduk Split the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.72

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Thun home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HNK Hajduk Split away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates HNK Hajduk Split to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 23% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for FC Thun and 1.72 for HNK Hajduk Split, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Thun win33%

Draw23%

HNK Hajduk Split win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.4%
1–28.9%
2–17.7%
0–17.0%
2–26.6%

Recent form

FC Thun

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Kriens · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshoppers · 0-1 (L)

HNK Hajduk Split

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs HNK Rijeka · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Vardarac · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rudes · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa Conference League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.