Stockhorn Arena · Referee Johannes von Mandach, Switzerland · Analysis updated 07:18 UTC
FC Thun vs Servette FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for FC Thun and 1.50 for Servette FC, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Servette FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Thun home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Servette FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Servette FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 33% / 25% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for FC Thun and 1.50 for Servette FC, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–17.7%
Recent form
FC Thun
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Kriens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshoppers · 0-1 (L)
Servette FC
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Annecy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.