Ajinomoto Stadium · Referee Hayato Shimizu, Japan · Analysis updated 20:06 UTC
FC Tokyo vs Kyoto Sanga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for FC Tokyo and 1.70 for Kyoto Sanga, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives FC Tokyo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Tokyo home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kyoto Sanga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.7%
Recent form
FC Tokyo
- 2026-10-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokyo Verdy · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mito Hollyhock · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Urawa · 3-0 (W)
Kyoto Sanga
- 2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Fujieda MYFC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fagiano Okayama · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Daejeon Citizen · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-08-24T10:00:00.000Z · FC Tokyo 0-4 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2025-05-31T10:00:00.000Z · FC Tokyo 0-3 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2024-08-24T10:00:00.000Z · FC Tokyo 0-3 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2024-05-03T06:00:00.000Z · FC Tokyo 2-1 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2023-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · FC Tokyo 2-0 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2023-06-18T09:00:00.000Z · FC Tokyo 3-1 Kyoto Sanga (J-League Cup)
- 2023-03-26T06:00:00.000Z · FC Tokyo 5-0 Kyoto Sanga (J-League Cup)
- 2023-03-04T05:00:00.000Z · FC Tokyo 0-2 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2022-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · FC Tokyo 2-0 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
- 2022-03-19T05:00:00.000Z · FC Tokyo 1-0 Kyoto Sanga (J1 League)
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 27 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kawasaki Frontale | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Urawa | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 21 |
| 8 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 13 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -12 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.