FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.56 expected goals for FC Tokyo and 1.24 for Machida Zelvia, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives FC Tokyo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

69.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Tokyo home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Tokyo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 25% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.56 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.24 for Machida Zelvia, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

FC Tokyo win45%

Draw25%

Machida Zelvia win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–111.8%
1–09.5%
2–19.2%
0–17.5%
2–07.4%

Recent form

FC Tokyo

2026-10-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 6-0 (W)
2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokyo Verdy · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mito Hollyhock · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Urawa · 3-0 (W)

Machida Zelvia

2026-10-03T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-23T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Tochigi City · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Svay Rieng · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	12	8	3	1	20	27
2	FC Tokyo	12	8	3	1	19	27
3	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	12	8	2	2	19	26
4	Kashiwa Reysol	12	8	1	3	6	25
5	Vissel Kobe	12	7	2	3	7	23
6	Kawasaki Frontale	12	6	4	2	7	22
7	Urawa	12	7	0	5	-2	21
8	Kashima	12	6	2	4	4	20
9	Yokohama F. Marinos	12	4	6	2	4	18
10	Fagiano Okayama	12	5	1	6	-2	16
11	Nagoya Grampus	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	Cerezo Osaka	12	3	5	4	-7	14
13	Shimizu S-pulse	12	4	2	6	-10	14
14	V-varen Nagasaki	12	3	3	6	-4	12
15	Gamba Osaka	12	2	5	5	-7	11
16	Kyoto Sanga	12	2	4	6	-8	10
17	Mito Hollyhock	12	2	3	7	-10	9
18	Tokyo Verdy	12	1	5	6	-12	8
19	Avispa Fukuoka	12	2	1	9	-8	7
20	JEF United Chiba	12	1	4	7	-12	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.