Ajinomoto Stadium · Analysis updated 12:05 UTC
FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC Tokyo and 0.87 for Shonan Bellmare, a combined total of 2.77. That distribution gives FC Tokyo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Tokyo win
61.6% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Tokyo home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Shonan Bellmare away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Tokyo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for FC Tokyo and 0.87 for Shonan Bellmare, a combined 2.77 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.8%
- 2–011.3%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.2%
Recent form
FC Tokyo
- 2026-10-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashiwa Reysol · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokyo Verdy · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Mito Hollyhock · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Urawa · 3-0 (W)
Shonan Bellmare
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Imabari · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Vanraure Hachinohe · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Vegalta Sendai · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Tokyo win, at 61.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.