FC Tokyo vs Urawa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for FC Tokyo and 1.43 for Urawa, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives FC Tokyo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Tokyo win

45.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.43

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Tokyo home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Urawa away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Tokyo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for FC Tokyo and 1.43 for Urawa, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Tokyo win45%

Draw23%

Urawa win32%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

1–110.4%
2–19.1%
1–27.4%
1–07.3%
2–26.5%

Recent form

FC Tokyo

2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ehime FC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagoya Grampus · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gamba Osaka · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-06T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Kyoto Sanga · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shimizu S-pulse · 1-1 (D)

Urawa

2026-10-10T06:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Tokyo · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Omiya Ardija · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Kataller Toyama · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Tokyo Verdy · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Fagiano Okayama · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

J1 League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kashiwa Reysol	9	7	0	2	7	21
2	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	9	6	2	1	16	20
3	Machida Zelvia	9	6	2	1	12	20
4	FC Tokyo	9	6	2	1	9	20
5	Vissel Kobe	9	6	1	2	5	19
6	Kashima	9	5	1	3	3	16
7	Yokohama F. Marinos	9	4	3	2	4	15
8	Kawasaki Frontale	9	3	4	2	3	13
9	Fagiano Okayama	9	4	1	4	0	13
10	Shimizu S-pulse	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Urawa	9	4	0	5	-5	12
12	Cerezo Osaka	9	3	3	3	-5	12
13	Mito Hollyhock	9	2	3	4	-1	9
14	V-varen Nagasaki	9	2	3	4	-5	9
15	Nagoya Grampus	9	3	0	6	-6	9
16	Kyoto Sanga	9	2	2	5	-5	8
17	Avispa Fukuoka	9	2	1	6	-2	7
18	Gamba Osaka	9	1	3	5	-8	6
19	JEF United Chiba	9	1	2	6	-11	5
20	Tokyo Verdy	9	0	4	5	-10	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Tokyo win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.