FC UFA vs Arsenal Tula Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for FC UFA and 0.80 for Arsenal Tula, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives FC UFA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC UFA win

62.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC UFA home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Arsenal Tula away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC UFA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for FC UFA and 0.80 for Arsenal Tula, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC UFA win63%

Draw22%

Arsenal Tula win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–012.9%
2–012.1%
1–110.3%
2–19.7%
3–07.6%

Recent form

FC UFA

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Sochi · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Moskva · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaluga · 0-1 (L)

Arsenal Tula

2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs CSKA Moscow · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Enisey · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ska-khabarovsk · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-08T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tekstilshchik · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	14	12	1	1	28	37
2	FC Sochi	14	9	2	3	9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	14	8	3	3	15	27
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	8	3	3	7	27
5	Veles	15	8	3	4	2	27
6	Ural	14	7	4	3	12	25
7	FC UFA	14	5	6	3	4	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	4	8	2	4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	14	5	3	6	5	18
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	5	3	7	-2	18
11	Arsenal Tula	14	4	4	6	-11	16
12	Chelyabinsk	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Enisey	14	3	5	6	-11	14
14	KAMAZ	14	3	4	7	-7	13
15	Leningradets	14	3	4	7	-14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	4	0	10	-11	12
17	Tekstilshchik	14	2	4	8	-12	10
18	Ska-khabarovsk	14	1	4	9	-13	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC UFA win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.