FC UFA vs Spartak Kostroma Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for FC UFA and 1.05 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined total of 2.17. That distribution gives FC UFA the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

66.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.12 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC UFA home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Kostroma away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC UFA to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 29% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for FC UFA and 1.05 for Spartak Kostroma, a combined 2.17 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

FC UFA win37%

Draw29%

Spartak Kostroma win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
1–012.8%
0–112.0%
0–011.4%
2–17.5%

Recent form

FC UFA

2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Sochi · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Moskva · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaluga · 0-1 (L)

Spartak Kostroma

2026-09-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Volga Ulyanovsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Neftekhimik · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ryazan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Chelyabinsk · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Rotor Volgograd · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

First League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nizhny Novgorod	14	12	1	1	28	37
2	FC Sochi	14	9	2	3	9	29
3	Torpedo Moskva	14	8	3	3	15	27
4	Spartak Kostroma	14	8	3	3	7	27
5	Veles	15	8	3	4	2	27
6	Ural	14	7	4	3	12	25
7	FC UFA	14	5	6	3	4	21
8	Shinnik Yaroslavl	14	4	8	2	4	20
9	Rotor Volgograd	14	5	3	6	5	18
10	Volga Ulyanovsk	15	5	3	7	-2	18
11	Arsenal Tula	14	4	4	6	-11	16
12	Chelyabinsk	14	4	3	7	-5	15
13	Enisey	14	3	5	6	-11	14
14	KAMAZ	14	3	4	7	-7	13
15	Leningradets	14	3	4	7	-14	13
16	FK Neftekhimik	14	4	0	10	-11	12
17	Tekstilshchik	14	2	4	8	-12	10
18	Ska-khabarovsk	14	1	4	9	-13	7

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.