Urartu Stadium · Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
FC Urartu vs Syunik Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.24 expected goals for FC Urartu and 0.77 for Syunik, a combined total of 3.01. That distribution gives FC Urartu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Urartu win
70.9% probability
Expected goals
2.24 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Syunik away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Urartu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 18% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.24 goals for FC Urartu and 0.77 for Syunik, a combined 3.01 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 48%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.4%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–09.3%
- 1–18.5%
Recent form
FC Urartu
Syunik
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ararat-Armenia · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Pyunik Yerevan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardarapat · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Pyunik Yerevan | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Ararat-Armenia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | FC Urartu | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Sardarapat | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 7 | Shirak | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | BKMA | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 7 |
| 11 | Syunik | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 5 |
| 12 | Gandzasar | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Urartu win, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.