Urartu Stadium · Analysis updated 15:07 UTC
FC Urartu vs Van Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for FC Urartu and 0.95 for Van, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives FC Urartu the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Urartu win
61.2% probability
Expected goals
1.97 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Van away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Urartu to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for FC Urartu and 0.95 for Van, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.6%
- 2–010.5%
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.9%
Recent form
FC Urartu
Van
- 2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Noah · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BKMA · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Alashkert · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Shirak · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Syunik · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T14:00:00.000Z · FC Urartu 2-0 Van (Premier League)
- 2026-04-10T11:30:00.000Z · FC Urartu 2-1 Van (Premier League)
- 2025-10-28T15:00:00.000Z · FC Urartu 4-0 Van (Cup)
- 2025-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · FC Urartu 2-0 Van (Premier League)
- 2025-05-28T15:00:00.000Z · FC Urartu 0-2 Van (Premier League)
- 2024-11-11T11:00:00.000Z · FC Urartu 1-3 Van (Premier League)
- 2024-10-16T15:00:00.000Z · FC Urartu 3-1 Van (Premier League)
- 2024-05-20T13:00:00.000Z · FC Urartu 1-1 Van (Premier League)
- 2024-03-30T15:00:00.000Z · FC Urartu 1-1 Van (Premier League)
- 2023-11-12T10:30:00.000Z · FC Urartu 2-2 Van (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Noah | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 24 |
| 2 | Ararat-Armenia | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Pyunik Yerevan | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 18 |
| 4 | Alashkert | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 5 | Sardarapat | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | FC Urartu | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Shirak | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ararat | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 9 | BKMA | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Van | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -17 | 4 |
| 11 | Gandzasar | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 3 |
| 12 | Syunik | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Urartu win, at 61.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.