Rheinpark Stadion · Referee Zrinko Prskalo, Switzerland · Analysis updated 13:27 UTC
FC Vaduz vs FC Thun Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.68 expected goals for FC Vaduz and 2.15 for FC Thun, a combined total of 4.83. That distribution gives FC Vaduz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 82% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Vaduz win
50.0% probability
Expected goals
2.68 – 2.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Vaduz home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Thun away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.6%
- 2–16.2%
- 3–25.9%
- 3–15.5%
- 1–25.0%
Recent form
FC Vaduz
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Basel 1893 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luzern · 1-2 (L)
FC Thun
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs SC Kriens · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Vaduz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Servette FC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshoppers · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · FC Vaduz 1-2 FC Thun (Super League)
- 2025-05-11T12:15:00.000Z · FC Vaduz 3-3 FC Thun (Challenge League)
- 2025-01-24T19:15:00.000Z · FC Vaduz 1-3 FC Thun (Challenge League)
- 2024-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · FC Vaduz 2-0 FC Thun (Challenge League)
- 2024-07-28T14:30:00.000Z · FC Vaduz 0-2 FC Thun (Challenge League)
- 2024-05-17T18:15:00.000Z · FC Vaduz 3-6 FC Thun (Challenge League)
- 2024-04-01T12:15:00.000Z · FC Vaduz 1-0 FC Thun (Challenge League)
- 2023-10-29T15:30:00.000Z · FC Vaduz 1-2 FC Thun (Challenge League)
- 2023-10-01T12:15:00.000Z · FC Vaduz 1-1 FC Thun (Challenge League)
- 2023-05-07T14:30:00.000Z · FC Vaduz 3-3 FC Thun (Challenge League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Vaduz win, at 50.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 82% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.