Rheinpark Stadion · Referee Logan Berchier, Switzerland · Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
FC Vaduz vs Grasshoppers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC Vaduz and 1.43 for Grasshoppers, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives FC Vaduz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Vaduz win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Vaduz home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grasshoppers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Vaduz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for FC Vaduz and 1.43 for Grasshoppers, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–27.2%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.6%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.4%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.65 | 57.1% | 59.2% | 1.69 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 45.4% | 46.8% | 2.14 | +1.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.60 | 35.3% | 36.3% | 2.75 | +1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 68.8% | 69.6% | 1.44 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.60 | 36.3% | 37.0% | 2.70 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 3.10 | 30.0% | 30.4% | 3.29 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 77.4% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 53.7% | 53.2% | 1.88 | -0.5 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.48 | 63.7% | 63.0% | 1.59 | -0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.42 | 64.7% | 63.7% | 1.57 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.80 | 24.5% | 22.8% | 4.39 | -1.7 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.20 | 42.9% | 40.8% | 2.45 | -2.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FC Vaduz
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Basel 1893 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Thun · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lausanne · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luzern · 1-2 (L)
Grasshoppers
- 2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Yverdon Sport · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Aarau · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Luzern · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 28 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 4 | FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | FC Zurich | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 6 | Servette FC | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 8 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Vaduz win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.