· Analysis updated 03:50 UTC
FC Viktoria Köln vs 1. FC Köln Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 3.08 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 4.80. That distribution gives 1. FC Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
1. FC Köln win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 3.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Viktoria Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Köln away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates 1. FC Köln to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 19% / 16% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 3.08 for 1. FC Köln, a combined 4.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
81%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–36.9%
- 1–26.7%
- 2–35.9%
- 2–25.8%
- 1–45.3%
Recent form
FC Viktoria Köln
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs MSV Duisburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alemannia Aachen · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-2 (D)
1. FC Köln
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Schalke 04 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is 1. FC Köln win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.