Sportpark Hohenberg · Referee E. Weisbach · Analysis updated 00:28 UTC
FC Viktoria Köln vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 1.53 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives FC Viktoria Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Viktoria Köln win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Viktoria Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
1. FC Nürnberg away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Viktoria Köln to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 1.53 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
FC Viktoria Köln
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs MSV Duisburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alemannia Aachen · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-2 (D)
1. FC Nürnberg
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hannover 96 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Arminia Bielefeld · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg (DFB Pokal)
- 2016-08-20T13:30:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 2-2 FC Nurnberg (DFB Pokal)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Viktoria Köln win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.