Sportpark Hohenberg · Referee F. Michel · Analysis updated 04:24 UTC
FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 1.28 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives FC Viktoria Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Viktoria Köln win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Viktoria Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Ingolstadt 04 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Viktoria Köln to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 1.28 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
FC Viktoria Köln
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs MSV Duisburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alemannia Aachen · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-2 (D)
FC Ingolstadt 04
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs SV Wehen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Nürnberg · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Alemannia Aachen | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Waldhof Mannheim | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Hoffenheim II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Hansa Rostock | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | SV Wehen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 11 | Preußen Münster | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | SV Meppen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Verl | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Würzburger Kickers | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Viktoria Köln win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.