Sportpark Hohenberg · Analysis updated 23:43 UTC
FC Viktoria Köln vs FC Saarbrücken Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 2.00 for FC Saarbrücken, a combined total of 4.35. That distribution gives FC Viktoria Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Viktoria Köln win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Viktoria Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Saarbrücken away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.1%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–16.1%
- 1–26.1%
- 3–15.6%
Recent form
FC Viktoria Köln
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Verl · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs MSV Duisburg · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Alemannia Aachen · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-2 (D)
FC Saarbrücken
- 2026-10-25T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Havelse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T17:00:00.000Z · H vs MSV Duisburg · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Köln · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-02T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-23T18:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 2-0 FC Saarbrücken (3. Liga)
- 2025-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 1-2 FC Saarbrücken (3. Liga)
- 2025-02-28T18:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 1-2 FC Saarbrücken (3. Liga)
- 2024-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 0-1 FC Saarbrücken (3. Liga)
- 2024-02-21T18:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 2-5 FC Saarbrücken (3. Liga)
- 2023-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 2-1 FC Saarbrücken (3. Liga)
- 2023-05-27T11:30:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 1-2 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
- 2023-01-20T18:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 0-2 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
- 2022-02-19T13:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 1-0 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
- 2021-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 0-0 FC Saarbrucken (3. Liga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Alemannia Aachen | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 6 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 7 | Waldhof Mannheim | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Hoffenheim II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 9 | Hansa Rostock | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | SV Wehen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 11 | Preußen Münster | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 12 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 | SV Meppen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 14 | Stuttgart II | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Verl | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 16 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Würzburger Kickers | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 11 |
| 18 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 |
| 20 | Havelse | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Viktoria Köln win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.