Sportpark Hohenberg · Referee S. Hilsberg · Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
FC Viktoria Köln vs Hansa Rostock Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 2.83 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 5.15. That distribution gives Hansa Rostock the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hansa Rostock win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 2.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Viktoria Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hansa Rostock away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.3%
- 2–35.9%
- 1–25.4%
- 1–35.1%
- 3–24.8%
Recent form
FC Viktoria Köln
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Meppen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 0-1 (L)
Hansa Rostock
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Stuttgart II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Viktoria Köln · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Wehen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T11:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Saarbrücken · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 4-0 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2026-04-04T12:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 3-2 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2025-10-26T15:30:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 2-4 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2025-02-09T12:30:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 1-1 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2024-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 3-0 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2021-02-27T13:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 1-2 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2020-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 1-5 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2019-12-20T18:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 1-5 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
- 2019-07-20T12:00:00.000Z · FC Viktoria Köln 3-3 Hansa Rostock (3. Liga)
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Waldhof Mannheim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alemannia Aachen | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Stuttgart II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Verl | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | Fortuna Köln | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | SV Meppen | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Wehen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Havelse | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hansa Rostock win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.