Sportpark Hohenberg · Analysis updated 17:00 UTC
FC Viktoria Köln vs Verl Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.97 expected goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 1.28 for Verl, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives FC Viktoria Köln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FC Viktoria Köln win
71.6% probability
Expected goals
2.97 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Viktoria Köln home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Verl away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Viktoria Köln to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 15% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.97 goals for FC Viktoria Köln and 1.28 for Verl, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.1%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–06.3%
- 3–06.2%
- 4–15.9%
Recent form
FC Viktoria Köln
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ingolstadt 04 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Meppen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hansa Rostock · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Rot-Weiß Essen · 0-1 (L)
Verl
- 2026-10-11T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Fortuna Düsseldorf · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Würzburger Kickers · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Meppen · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | FC Viktoria Köln | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Rot-Weiß Essen | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 4 | Hansa Rostock | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | FC Saarbrücken | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | Waldhof Mannheim | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Hoffenheim II | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Preußen Münster | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 12 |
| 9 | Alemannia Aachen | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Fortuna Düsseldorf | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Stuttgart II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 12 | Verl | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 13 | Fortuna Köln | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | SV Meppen | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | SSV Jahn Regensburg | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 16 | Würzburger Kickers | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | SV Wehen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 19 | SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Havelse | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Viktoria Köln win, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.