FC Vitebsk vs Naftan Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for FC Vitebsk and 0.67 for Naftan, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives FC Vitebsk the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Vitebsk win

71.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.16 – 0.67

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FC Vitebsk home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Naftan away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Vitebsk to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 18% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for FC Vitebsk and 0.67 for Naftan, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FC Vitebsk win72%

Draw18%

Naftan win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

2–013.8%
1–012.8%
3–09.9%
2–19.2%
1–18.5%

Recent form

FC Vitebsk

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Baranovichi · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Isloch Minsk R. · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Fakel · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Zhodino · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Belshina · 1-1 (D)

Naftan

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Belshina · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Mozyr · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bate Borisov · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Minsk · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-02T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Minsk · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	ML Vitebsk	24	15	8	1	32	53
2	Dinamo Minsk	24	16	4	4	26	52
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	24	14	7	3	21	49
4	Dinamo Brest	25	13	5	7	16	44
5	Neman	25	13	4	8	10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	25	11	7	7	8	40
7	FC Gomel	25	11	7	7	11	40
8	FC Minsk	25	10	4	11	-1	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	9	6	10	-1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	7	7	11	-4	28
11	Baranovichi	25	6	7	12	-18	25
12	Arsenal	25	5	8	12	-20	23
13	Bate Borisov	25	4	9	12	-13	21
14	Belshina	24	5	6	13	-19	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	3	10	12	-16	19
16	Naftan	25	4	5	16	-32	17

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Vitebsk win, at 71.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.