Lidl Arena · Referee J. Muller · Analysis updated 17:46 UTC
FC WIL 1900 vs Neuchatel Xamax FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for FC WIL 1900 and 3.50 for Neuchatel Xamax FC, a combined total of 7.00. That distribution gives FC WIL 1900 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 95% for over 2.5 goals and 92% for both teams to score, with 3–3 the single most likely scoreline at 5%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
57.9% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 3.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC WIL 1900 home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Neuchatel Xamax FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–34.7%
- 3–44.1%
- 4–34.1%
- 2–34.0%
- 3–24.0%
Recent form
FC WIL 1900
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapperswil · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Kriens · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs SCR Altach · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Stade Nyonnais · 5-0 (W)
Neuchatel Xamax FC
- 2026-10-23T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Langenthal · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Winterthur · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sochaux · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Zurich · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-31T17:30:00.000Z · FC WIL 1900 1-2 Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
- 2026-04-07T17:30:00.000Z · FC WIL 1900 5-2 Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
- 2026-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · FC WIL 1900 0-0 Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
- 2025-11-02T13:00:00.000Z · FC WIL 1900 2-1 Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
- 2025-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · FC WIL 1900 1-3 Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
- 2025-05-23T18:15:00.000Z · FC WIL 1900 3-2 Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
- 2025-01-31T19:15:00.000Z · FC WIL 1900 2-0 Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
- 2024-11-01T18:30:00.000Z · FC WIL 1900 4-1 Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
- 2024-08-23T18:15:00.000Z · FC WIL 1900 4-0 Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
- 2024-04-23T17:30:00.000Z · FC WIL 1900 2-2 Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Yverdon Sport | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Neuchatel Xamax FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 5 | SC Kriens | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Rapperswil | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 9 | FC WIL 1900 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -6 | 11 |
| 10 | Stade Nyonnais | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -20 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 92% and over 2.5 goals at 95%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.