Stadion Niedermatten · Analysis updated 09:08 UTC
FC Wohlen vs Concordia Basel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for FC Wohlen and 1.90 for Concordia Basel, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Concordia Basel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Concordia Basel win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Wohlen home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concordia Basel away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concordia Basel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 32% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for FC Wohlen and 1.90 for Concordia Basel, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–15.9%
Recent form
FC Wohlen
- 2026-09-30T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Buochs · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Thun II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Black Stars · 0-1 (L)
Concordia Basel
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muri-Gümligen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zug · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Solothurn · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Langenthal | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Courtételle | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Schötz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Muttenz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Solothurn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Delémont | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Concordia Basel | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Buochs | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 9 | Muri-Gümligen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 10 | Grasshopper II | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Zug | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 13 |
| 12 | FC Wohlen | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Thun II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Bassecourt | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Black Stars | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Münsingen | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Concordia Basel win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.