Letzigrund · Referee Johannes von Mandach, Switzerland · Analysis updated 21:50 UTC
FC Zurich vs Servette FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.61 expected goals for FC Zurich and 1.59 for Servette FC, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives FC Zurich the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.59
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FC Zurich home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Servette FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
FC Zurich
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Sion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Vaduz · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Grasshoppers · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs BSC Young Boys · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne · 3-2 (W)
Servette FC
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Sion · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Annecy · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSC Young Boys · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Thun · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lausanne · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · FC Zurich 2-1 Servette FC (Super League)
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · FC Zurich 0-2 Servette FC (Super League)
- 2026-03-07T17:00:00.000Z · FC Zurich 1-2 Servette FC (Super League)
- 2026-01-18T13:00:00.000Z · FC Zurich 1-1 Servette FC (Super League)
- 2025-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · FC Zurich 2-1 Servette FC (Super League)
- 2025-03-09T13:15:00.000Z · FC Zurich 1-3 Servette FC (Super League)
- 2024-11-09T19:30:00.000Z · FC Zurich 1-1 Servette FC (Super League)
- 2024-10-27T15:30:00.000Z · FC Zurich 1-3 Servette FC (Super League)
- 2024-05-15T18:30:00.000Z · FC Zurich 2-1 Servette FC (Super League)
- 2024-04-06T18:30:00.000Z · FC Zurich 1-0 Servette FC (Super League)
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Lugano | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 31 |
| 2 | BSC Young Boys | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Zurich | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 17 |
| 5 | Servette FC | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | FC ST. Gallen | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 7 | FC Basel 1893 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 8 | FC Luzern | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -6 | 12 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 9 |
| 12 | Lausanne | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.