Maarjamae staadion · Analysis updated 01:49 UTC
FCI Levadia II vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.74 expected goals for FCI Levadia II and 0.96 for Nõmme Kalju II, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives FCI Levadia II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FCI Levadia II win
74.6% probability
Expected goals
2.74 – 0.96
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FCI Levadia II home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nõmme Kalju II away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
25%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.3%
- 2–18.9%
- 3–08.5%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–06.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 3.10 (model 42.4% vs market 29.5%, edge +12.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 3.10 | 29.5% | 42.4% | 2.36 | +12.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 4.00 | 23.7% | 25.4% | 3.94 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Away | 8.50 | 10.5% | 10.6% | 9.43 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.20 | 74.6% | 74.6% | 1.34 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 6.00 | 14.9% | 14.8% | 6.76 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.05 | 90.2% | 89.4% | 1.12 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.10 | 86.1% | 85.2% | 1.17 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.30 | 70.5% | 57.6% | 1.74 | -12.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FCI Levadia II
- 2026-10-25T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Elva · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tallinna Kalev · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme Kalju II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nõmme United II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
Nõmme Kalju II
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Elva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs FCI Levadia II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maardu · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Nõmme United II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tartu Welco · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-14T16:00:00.000Z · FCI Levadia II 1-0 Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A)
- 2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · FCI Levadia II 2-0 Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A)
- 2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · FCI Levadia II 0-1 Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · FCI Levadia II 2-0 Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A)
- 2026-01-31T09:30:00.000Z · FCI Levadia II 4-1 Nõmme Kalju II (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · FCI Levadia II 0-0 Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A)
- 2025-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · FCI Levadia II 3-3 Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A)
- 2025-06-30T16:00:00.000Z · FCI Levadia II 2-3 Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A)
- 2025-04-28T16:00:00.000Z · FCI Levadia II 1-0 Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A)
- 2018-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · FCI Levadia II 3-2 Nõmme Kalju II (Esiliiga A)
Esiliiga A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 55 | 74 |
| 2 | Viimsi | 33 | 17 | 6 | 10 | 29 | 57 |
| 3 | Flora II | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 51 |
| 4 | FCI Levadia II | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 51 |
| 5 | Elva | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 50 |
| 6 | Maardu | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | -12 | 44 |
| 7 | FC Tallinn | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | -34 | 38 |
| 8 | Tallinna Kalev | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | -6 | 37 |
| 9 | Nõmme United II | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | -15 | 37 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | -43 | 24 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FCI Levadia II win, at 74.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.