· Analysis updated 16:58 UTC
FCM Ungheni vs Victoria Bardar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for FCM Ungheni and 1.08 for Victoria Bardar, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives FCM Ungheni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FCM Ungheni win
67.5% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FCM Ungheni home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Victoria Bardar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–07.2%
Recent form
FCM Ungheni
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Univer Comrat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartanii Selemet · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vulturii Cutezători · 4-3 (W)
Victoria Bardar
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Oguzsport · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FC National Ialoveni · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Stăuceni · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Făleşti · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oguzsport · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-06T13:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 4-2 Victoria Bardar (Super Liga)
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 6-2 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-11-07T11:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 2-1 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 3-1 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 3-2 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 1-3 Victoria Bardar (Super Liga)
- 2024-11-08T11:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 2-3 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2024-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 3-4 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2024-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 2-3 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2022-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 1-3 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iskra | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 22 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Vulturii Cutezători | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Făleşti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Zimbru II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 4 | FC National Ialoveni | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Univer Comrat | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FCM Ungheni win, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.