· Analysis updated 12:45 UTC
FCM Ungheni vs Victoria Bardar Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.56 expected goals for FCM Ungheni and 1.53 for Victoria Bardar, a combined total of 4.09. That distribution gives FCM Ungheni the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FCM Ungheni win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
2.56 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FCM Ungheni home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Victoria Bardar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 10 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.4%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–16.6%
- 2–26.4%
- 2–05.5%
Recent form
FCM Ungheni
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Univer Comrat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartanii Selemet · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vulturii Cutezători · 4-3 (W)
Victoria Bardar
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Făleşti · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC National Ialoveni · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Stăuceni · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Făleşti · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-31T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oguzsport · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-06T13:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 4-2 Victoria Bardar (Super Liga)
- 2026-04-10T13:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 6-2 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-11-07T11:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 2-1 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 3-1 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 3-2 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2025-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 1-3 Victoria Bardar (Super Liga)
- 2024-11-08T11:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 2-3 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2024-09-29T13:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 3-4 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2024-08-16T14:30:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 2-3 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
- 2022-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · FCM Ungheni 1-3 Victoria Bardar (Liga 1)
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheriff Tiraspol | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 37 |
| 2 | Petrocub | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 29 |
| 3 | Zimbru | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Dacia-Buiucani | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 5 | Politehnica UTM | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 19 |
| 6 | Milsami Orhei | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 7 | Sireți | 16 | 1 | 7 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 8 | CSF Bălți | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -39 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FCM Ungheni win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.