· Analysis updated 17:40 UTC
FCM Ungheni vs Vulturii Cutezători Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for FCM Ungheni and 2.58 for Vulturii Cutezători, a combined total of 5.08. That distribution gives Vulturii Cutezători the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
60.4% probability
Expected goals
2.50 – 2.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FCM Ungheni home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vulturii Cutezători away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vulturii Cutezători to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 40% / 18% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.50 goals for FCM Ungheni and 2.58 for Vulturii Cutezători, a combined 5.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–26.5%
- 2–35.6%
- 3–25.4%
- 1–25.2%
- 2–15.0%
Recent form
FCM Ungheni
- 2026-10-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Univer Comrat · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartanii Selemet · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vulturii Cutezători · 4-3 (W)
Vulturii Cutezători
- 2026-09-01T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Oguzsport · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Zimbru II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Univer Comrat · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-14T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Spartanii Selemet · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-08-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iskra | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 22 |
| 1 | Oguzsport | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Vulturii Cutezători | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Stăuceni | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | FCM Ungheni | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 18 |
| 3 | Făleşti | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 4 | Zimbru II | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 16 |
| 4 | FC National Ialoveni | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 5 | Univer Comrat | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 5 | Victoria Bardar | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Spartanii Selemet | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -30 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 60.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.