National Arena · Referee Adrian Viorel Cojocaru, Romania · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
FCSB vs Farul Constanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.57 expected goals for FCSB and 1.40 for Farul Constanta, a combined total of 2.97. That distribution gives FCSB the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FCSB home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Farul Constanta away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.9%
- 0–17.2%
Recent form
FCSB
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Oţelul · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Arges Pitesti · 5-0 (W)
Farul Constanta
- 2026-10-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-03T18:30:00.000Z · FCSB 2-2 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2026-04-20T17:30:00.000Z · FCSB 3-2 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2025-11-30T18:30:00.000Z · FCSB 2-1 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2025-07-26T18:30:00.000Z · FCSB 1-2 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-12-15T18:45:00.000Z · FCSB 1-1 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-08-09T18:00:00.000Z · FCSB 3-2 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-04-27T17:30:00.000Z · FCSB 2-1 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-03-31T18:00:00.000Z · FCSB 1-0 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2024-02-05T18:00:00.000Z · FCSB 1-1 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
- 2023-09-17T18:45:00.000Z · FCSB 1-0 Farul Constanta (Liga I)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 29 |
| 2 | Rapid | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 20 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 6 | FCSB | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 7 | Farul Constanta | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| 8 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Uta Arad | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 | FC Botosani | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 12 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -5 | 14 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 12 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | -18 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.