Arena Națională · Referee George Catalin Roman, Romania · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
FCSB vs Oţelul Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.91 expected goals for FCSB and 0.74 for Oţelul, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives FCSB the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FCSB win
65.1% probability
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FCSB home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Oţelul away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.5%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 3–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 55.5% vs market 46.7%, edge +8.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.7% | 55.5% | 1.80 | +8.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 85.6% | 86.3% | 1.16 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.33 | 21.0% | 21.2% | 4.72 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 65.0% | 65.1% | 1.54 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 14.0% | 13.7% | 7.30 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.70 | 35.2% | 34.9% | 2.87 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.2% | 78.8% | 1.27 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 53.3% | 44.5% | 2.25 | -8.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FCSB
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Craiova · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Petrolul Ploiesti · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Arges Pitesti · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 1-3 (L)
Oţelul
- 2026-10-10T18:30:00.000Z · A vs FCSB · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Bacau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Corvinul Hunedoara · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Universitatea Cluj · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rapid · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T17:00:00.000Z · FCSB 4-0 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2026-02-08T18:00:00.000Z · FCSB 4-1 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2025-09-28T17:30:00.000Z · FCSB 1-0 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2024-12-02T18:30:00.000Z · FCSB 4-1 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2024-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · FCSB 0-2 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2023-12-03T19:00:00.000Z · FCSB 0-2 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2023-10-31T19:00:00.000Z · FCSB 1-1 Oţelul (Cupa României)
- 2023-07-29T18:30:00.000Z · FCSB 2-0 Oţelul (Liga I)
- 2022-11-10T19:00:00.000Z · FCSB 0-0 Oţelul (Cupa României)
- 2022-07-09T17:00:00.000Z · FCSB 1-0 Oţelul (Friendlies Clubs)
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Bucuresti | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Rapid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 3 | Universitatea Craiova | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 23 |
| 4 | Petrolul Ploiesti | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 5 | Universitatea Cluj | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Farul Constanta | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 7 | Corvinul Hunedoara | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | CFR 1907 Cluj | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | FCSB | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 | FC Botosani | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Uta Arad | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Arges Pitesti | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 | Oţelul | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 15 | FC Voluntari | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FCSB win, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.