Fehérvár FC vs BVSC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fehérvár FC and 1.20 for BVSC, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Fehérvár FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fehérvár FC win

47.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fehérvár FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BVSC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fehérvár FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Fehérvár FC and 1.20 for BVSC, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Fehérvár FC win48%

Draw24%

BVSC win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–09.5%
2–19.4%
2–07.9%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Fehérvár FC

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Szentlőrinc SE · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagykanizsai ULE · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Diosgyori VTK · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Diosgyori VTK · 2-1 (W)

BVSC

2026-10-12T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Soroksar · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Szentlőrinc SE · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajka · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Nagykanizsai ULE · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Diosgyori VTK · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-04T08:30:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 1-0 BVSC (Friendlies Clubs)
2026-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 0-1 BVSC (NB II)
2025-11-09T14:00:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 0-1 BVSC (NB II)
2021-11-03T11:30:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 5-2 BVSC (Magyar Kupa)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fehérvár FC win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.