Sostoi Stadion · Analysis updated 13:33 UTC
Fehérvár FC vs Diosgyori VTK Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.43 expected goals for Fehérvár FC and 1.17 for Diosgyori VTK, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Fehérvár FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fehérvár FC win
64.9% probability
Expected goals
2.43 – 1.17
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fehérvár FC home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Diosgyori VTK away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.0%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Fehérvár FC
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Szentlőrinc SE · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ujpest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nagykanizsai ULE · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Diosgyori VTK · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Diosgyori VTK · 2-1 (W)
Diosgyori VTK
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyirmot SE · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fehérvár FC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-07T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Fehérvár FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs BVSC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tiszakecske FC · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-03-16T11:30:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 0-0 Diosgyori VTK (NB I)
- 2024-11-10T14:30:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 0-1 Diosgyori VTK (NB I)
- 2024-10-30T19:00:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 2-1 Diosgyori VTK (Magyar Kupa)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 3-1 Diosgyori VTK (NB I)
- 2024-05-18T15:45:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 0-0 Diosgyori VTK (NB I)
- 2024-02-24T14:00:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 0-4 Diosgyori VTK (NB I)
- 2023-10-28T12:45:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 4-0 Diosgyori VTK (NB I)
- 2021-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 4-0 Diosgyori VTK (NB I)
- 2021-02-20T16:00:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 1-3 Diosgyori VTK (NB I)
- 2020-11-22T16:00:00.000Z · Fehérvár FC 3-0 Diosgyori VTK (NB I)
NB II table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Soroksar | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 2 | Tiszakecske FC | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Kecskeméti TE | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Gyirmot SE | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 5 | Kazincbarcikai | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Mezokovesd-zsory | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Ajka | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Fehérvár FC | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Diosgyori VTK | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 10 | Karcag SE | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Szentlőrinc SE | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | BVSC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 10 |
| 13 | Szeged 2011 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Nagykanizsai ULE | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | Kozarmisleny FC | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 7 |
| 16 | Csakvar | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -13 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fehérvár FC win, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.