Estadio Marcolino de Castro · Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Feirense vs Benfica B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Feirense and 1.50 for Benfica B, a combined total of 2.10. That distribution gives Benfica B the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 35% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Benfica B win
59.2% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Feirense home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Benfica B away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Benfica B to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 15% / 26% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Feirense and 1.50 for Benfica B, a combined 2.10 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.4%
- 0–213.8%
- 0–012.2%
- 1–111.0%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Feirense
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Farense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chaves · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP B · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AVS · 0-2 (L)
Benfica B
- 2026-09-11T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Academica · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Amarante · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Portimonense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs União de Leiria · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Benfica B win, at 59.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 35%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.