Estadio Marcolino de Castro · Referee B. J. Costa · Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
Feirense vs FC Porto B Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.19 expected goals for Feirense and 0.86 for FC Porto B, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Feirense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.4% probability
Expected goals
1.19 – 0.86
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Feirense home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
FC Porto B away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Feirense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 30% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.19 goals for Feirense and 0.86 for FC Porto B, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–111.1%
- 2–09.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.80 (model 59.9% vs market 51.5%, edge +8.4 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.80 | 51.5% | 59.9% | 1.67 | +8.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 54.3% | 56.4% | 1.77 | +2.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.40 | 26.4% | 26.6% | 3.76 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.05 | 43.7% | 43.6% | 2.29 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.9% | 29.8% | 3.36 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.6% | 70.2% | 1.42 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 75.1% | 73.4% | 1.36 | -1.7 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 40.1% | 2.49 | -8.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Feirense
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Farense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Salgueiros · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chaves · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sporting CP B · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AVS · 0-2 (L)
FC Porto B
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Vizela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tondela · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Feirense · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Farense · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Benfica B | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 11 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | AVS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | Felgueiras 1932 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Feirense | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.