Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos · Analysis updated 15:51 UTC
Felgueiras 1932 vs Fafe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.11 expected goals for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.26 for Fafe, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Fafe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.5% probability
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Felgueiras 1932 home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Fafe away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fafe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 28% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.11 goals for Felgueiras 1932 and 1.26 for Fafe, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.8%
- 1–010.4%
- 0–09.4%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Felgueiras 1932
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Naval 1893 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Penafiel · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Vizela · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Chaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Farense · 1-1 (D)
Fafe
- 2026-09-20T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Lajense · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Paredes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Leça · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Pacos Ferreira · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Guimaraes B · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.