Felsőpakonyi KSE Sporttelep · Analysis updated 06:43 UTC
Felsőpakony vs III. Kerületi TUE Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.52 expected goals for Felsőpakony and 1.44 for III. Kerületi TUE, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Felsőpakony the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.44
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
III. Kerületi TUE away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Felsőpakony to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.52 goals for Felsőpakony and 1.44 for III. Kerületi TUE, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 57% and both teams to score at 60%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–17.4%
Recent form
Felsőpakony
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Dabas · 1-3 (L)
- 2023-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · H vs III. Kerületi TUE · 3-4 (L)
III. Kerületi TUE
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyulai Termál · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Újpest II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Szolnoki MAV FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Honvéd II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szegedi VSE · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-08-05T14:30:00.000Z · Felsőpakony 3-4 III. Kerületi TUE (Magyar Kupa)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.