Chobani Stadium · Referee Jesus Gil Manzano · Analysis updated 19:44 UTC
Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.82 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.49 for AS Roma, a combined total of 3.31. That distribution gives Fenerbahçe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fenerbahçe win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fenerbahçe home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Roma away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fenerbahçe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.82 goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.49 for AS Roma, a combined 3.31 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Fenerbahçe
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eyüpspor · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaziantep FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 1-1 (D)
AS Roma
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Como · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-14T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Torino · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Atalanta · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · Fenerbahçe 1-1 AS Roma (UEFA Champions League)
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | AEK Athens FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | AS Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Lask Linz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | FC Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Slovan Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodo/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fenerbahçe win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.