Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu · Referee M. Turkmen · Analysis updated 15:24 UTC
Fenerbahçe vs Eyüpspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 1.28 for Eyüpspor, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Fenerbahçe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fenerbahçe win
48.6% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fenerbahçe home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eyüpspor away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Fenerbahçe
- 2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eyüpspor · 8-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaziantep FK · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 1-1 (D)
Eyüpspor
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rizespor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Çorum FK · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alanyaspor · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gaziantep FK · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · Fenerbahçe 8-0 Eyüpspor (Süper Lig)
- 2026-05-17T17:00:00.000Z · Fenerbahçe 3-3 Eyüpspor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-12-20T14:00:00.000Z · Fenerbahçe 3-0 Eyüpspor (Süper Lig)
- 2025-05-18T16:00:00.000Z · Fenerbahçe 2-1 Eyüpspor (Süper Lig)
- 2024-12-20T17:00:00.000Z · Fenerbahçe 1-1 Eyüpspor (Süper Lig)
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 16 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fenerbahçe win, at 48.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.