Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.66 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Fenerbahçe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fenerbahçe win

71.7% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.14 – 0.66

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fenerbahçe home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fenerbahçe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 18% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.66 for Konyaspor, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 43%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Fenerbahçe win72%

Draw18%

Konyaspor win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

28%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

2–013.9%
1–013.0%
3–010.0%
2–19.2%
1–18.6%

Recent form

Fenerbahçe

2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rizespor · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Turan · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eyüpspor · 8-0 (W)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gaziantep FK · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-10T16:45:00.000Z · H vs AS Roma · 1-1 (D)

Konyaspor

2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Palestine · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Kasımpaşa · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Trabzonspor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzurumspor FK · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kocaelispor · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Süper Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Galatasaray	7	5	1	1	5	16
2	Beşiktaş	7	5	0	2	8	15
3	Amed	7	4	2	1	8	14
4	Fenerbahçe	7	4	1	2	13	13
5	Trabzonspor	7	4	1	2	11	13
6	Alanyaspor	7	3	3	1	2	12
7	Kocaelispor	7	4	0	3	2	12
8	Çorum FK	7	3	1	3	4	10
9	Kasımpaşa	7	2	4	1	0	10
10	Rizespor	7	3	1	3	-2	10
11	Başakşehir	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Gaziantep FK	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	7	2	2	3	-8	8
14	Erzurumspor FK	7	2	2	3	-8	8
15	Göztepe	7	1	3	3	0	6
16	Konyaspor	7	1	2	4	-4	5
17	Samsunspor	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Eyüpspor	7	1	0	6	-18	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fenerbahçe win, at 71.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.