Parque Capurro · Analysis updated 16:09 UTC
Fenix vs Plaza Colonia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Fenix and 1.03 for Plaza Colonia, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Fenix the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.03 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fenix home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Plaza Colonia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fenix to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 35%, against 35% / 30% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Fenix and 1.03 for Plaza Colonia, a combined 2.05 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.2%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–012.9%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Fenix
- 2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Huracan · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay Montevideo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriental · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Boston River · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón · 1-1 (D)
Plaza Colonia
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensor Sporting · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Paysandu · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Rentistas · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Huracan · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oriental | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 2 | Plaza Colonia | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 3 | Fenix | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Sportivo Huracan | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Colón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Uruguay Montevideo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Rentistas | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Cerrito | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | La Luz | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Miramar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Atenas | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 13 | CA River Plate | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 14 | Tacuarembo | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 1 | Atenas | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 40 |
| 2 | Rentistas | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 33 |
| 3 | Oriental | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 32 |
| 4 | Plaza Colonia | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 32 |
| 5 | CA River Plate | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 30 |
| 6 | Colón | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 7 | Cerrito | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29 |
| 8 | Fenix | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 29 |
| 9 | La Luz | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -5 | 27 |
| 10 | Sportivo Huracan | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -6 | 26 |
| 11 | Paysandu | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -2 | 25 |
| 12 | Miramar | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 25 |
| 13 | Tacuarembo | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | -7 | 24 |
| 14 | Uruguay Montevideo | 21 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -12 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.