Fenix vs Uruguay Montevideo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fenix and 0.84 for Uruguay Montevideo, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Fenix the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fenix win

56.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 0.84

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fenix home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fenix to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Fenix and 0.84 for Uruguay Montevideo, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 46%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%.

Match result (1X2)

Fenix win57%

Draw24%

Uruguay Montevideo win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.7%
1–111.5%
2–011.3%
2–19.5%
0–08.3%

Recent form

Fenix

2026-10-11T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Huracan · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Uruguay Montevideo · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriental · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-23T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Boston River · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Colón · 1-1 (D)

Uruguay Montevideo

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Segunda División table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oriental	6	4	1	1	3	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	7	12
3	Fenix	6	3	2	1	6	11
4	Sportivo Huracan	6	2	4	0	3	10
5	Colón	6	2	3	1	3	9
6	Uruguay Montevideo	6	2	3	1	2	9
7	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	1	9
8	Cerrito	6	2	3	1	0	9
9	La Luz	6	1	4	1	-1	7
10	Miramar	6	1	2	3	-4	5
11	Paysandu	6	1	1	4	-3	4
12	Atenas	6	1	1	4	-6	4
13	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	-7	4
14	Tacuarembo	6	0	3	3	-4	3
1	Atenas	23	12	5	6	9	41
2	Plaza Colonia	23	10	6	7	6	36
3	Rentistas	23	10	6	7	5	36
4	Colón	23	10	6	7	2	36
5	CA River Plate	23	9	6	8	6	33
6	Oriental	23	8	9	6	5	33
7	Cerrito	23	8	8	7	3	32
8	Paysandu	23	9	4	10	0	31
9	La Luz	23	8	7	8	-4	31
10	Fenix	23	7	9	7	2	30
11	Miramar	23	7	8	8	-2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	7	6	10	-9	27
13	Tacuarembo	23	6	6	11	-9	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	23	4	6	13	-14	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fenix win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.