· Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
Feraios vs Trikala Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.66 expected goals for Feraios and 0.98 for Trikala, a combined total of 1.64. That distribution gives Trikala the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 34%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 23% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
76.2% probability
Expected goals
0.66 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Trikala away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trikala to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 24% / 34% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.66 goals for Feraios and 0.98 for Trikala, a combined 1.64 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 23% and both teams to score at 30%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
66%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–019.4%
- 0–119.1%
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–29.3%
Recent form
Feraios
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trikala · 0-1 (L)
Trikala
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis Larissa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Feraios · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Larisa · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aris Filiates · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trikala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Anthoupoli | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Ermis Exochi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Elassona | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Pierikos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Karitsa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sarakinos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Feraios | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 10 | Iraklis Larissa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Digenis Neochori | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 76.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 23%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.