· Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Ferencváros II vs MTK Budapest II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Ferencváros II and 1.74 for MTK Budapest II, a combined total of 4.29. That distribution gives Ferencváros II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ferencváros II win
55.4% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 1.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ferencváros II home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
MTK Budapest II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 3–16.6%
- 1–16.1%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Ferencváros II
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs MTK Budapest II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaposvar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Iváncsa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sárbogárd · 1-0 (W)
MTK Budapest II
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dunaharaszti MTK · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Paksi SE II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-15T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Budaörs · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Siofok · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 8-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2025-11-15T10:00:00.000Z · Ferencváros II 0-4 MTK Budapest II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2025-07-27T09:00:00.000Z · Ferencváros II 5-0 MTK Budapest II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2025-05-25T15:00:00.000Z · Ferencváros II 2-2 MTK Budapest II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2024-11-10T10:00:00.000Z · Ferencváros II 1-1 MTK Budapest II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2024-03-10T10:00:00.000Z · Ferencváros II 0-1 MTK Budapest II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2023-08-19T09:00:00.000Z · Ferencváros II 2-0 MTK Budapest II (NB III - Southwest)
- 2022-12-04T10:00:00.000Z · Ferencváros II 0-2 MTK Budapest II (NB III - Northwest)
- 2022-07-31T09:00:00.000Z · Ferencváros II 3-2 MTK Budapest II (NB III - Northwest)
- 2022-02-13T10:00:00.000Z · Ferencváros II 0-2 MTK Budapest II (NB III - Northwest)
- 2021-08-11T15:30:00.000Z · Ferencváros II 0-0 MTK Budapest II (NB III - Northwest)
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 34 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 22 |
| 3 | Ferencváros II | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 4 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | Iváncsa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Majosi | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Budafoki LC | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | PTE-PEAC | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 9 | MTK Budapest II | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 15 |
| 10 | Érdi VSE | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Siofok | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -13 | 12 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | -40 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ferencváros II win, at 55.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.